Caught Out

It is highly likely that all three main parties are trying to get their preferred candidate elected as Speaker, but only Labour have been caught out doing it.

Militants are Naughty

According to Frank Gardner, the BBC's security correspondent, on the News at Ten terrorists 'execute' British hostages.

Witch Hunt

A member of Merseyside Police and a teacher at Dulwich College, are being investigated because their names appeared on the leaked membership list of the British National Party.

As long as the BNP remains a legal political party in the UK, and their members don't espouse inappropriate views in the workplace no limits should be imposed on where they can be employed.

Those who advocate banning BNP members from certain professions have to explain why members of extreme left wing parties, or those with strange religious beliefs are not equally prohibited.

The rules should apply to all not just the BNP.

Stupid Comment of the Day

Elizabeth Snead in the LA Times:

'What she does not know is that at least two helpless turkeys are being slaughtered alive in the background'

As opposed to being 'slaughtered dead' Elizabeth?

Get Away

It was 'a very offensive programme which should never have been recorded' 'gratuitous, offensive,' and a 'deplorable intrusion' into Andrew Sachs privacy, but no futher action is going to be taken against Jonathon Ross.

Ditching the Nuts

Now he has got himself elected Barrack Obama has decided to ignore the left wing bloggers who supported him ovine-like. Here are their cabinet choices, not one of whom has been chosen.

And they told me George Bush would destroy the environment...

The Earth has cooled since George Bush took office and 2008 is looking like it will be the coolest year since 1997.

Picking Polls 2

The size of the Tory lead in the most recent polls from the six polling companies:

Ipsos Mori: 3%
YouGov: 5%
ComRes: 11%
Populus: 6%
BPIX:14%
ICM 13%

Average: 8.6%

Guess which one the BBC is heavily reporting, Ipsos Mori of course.

The hype this poll picking is generating is interesting. While Labour, due to the bias in the electoral system, might have a shot of getting a majority going into an election 3% behind, they haven't a hope if they are over eight points behind let alone over ten points behind (as three pollsters suggest they are). As Anthony Wells suggests '...right now, the broader picture still shows that the Conservatives would win the hypothetical “general election tomorrow”'.

So why are Labour's allies in the media hyping an early election that their party is still unlikely to win?

Picking Polls

Two polls have come out in the last few days, an ICM poll (released Sunday) gives the Tories a 13 point lead and a Populus poll (released Monday) gives the Tories a 6 point lead.

The BBC picked the worst result for the Tories to report, again.

50%

The latest MORI poll has the Tories breaking 50% on 52% (+4%), Labour on 24%, and the Lib Dems on 12% (-5%).

It is strange that with all Labour's woes that it is the Lib Dems that have taken such a hit.

The poll 'might be a freak result. Still, that won’t stop it becoming part of the ever growing narrative about the Labour party in crisis, and in that sense this is horrific, hideous news for Labour'.

Didn't Mean to Print That

From the Daily Mirror:

'I won't hand power to David Cameron, says Lib Dems chief David Cameron'

In Canada

Some polling in the Canadian Federal election shows the possibility that on polling day the New Democratic Party might well replace the Liberals as the Opposition, but most don't. All the polling shows the Conservatives ahead of the Liberals by from 5% to 14%.

Attack Dogs

New York State Governor David Paterson says ' community organizer' is GOP code for 'black' and thus racist, a Obama campaign aide questions McCain's honour, and Obama himself likens Sarah Palin to a pig.

Anything to do with McCain being ahead in the polls?

The One Behind

The latest USA Today/Gallup poll has the McCain Palin ticket 4 points ahead of the Obama Biden one (50% to 46%) and ten points ahead (54%-44%) among those most likely to vote.

This puts McCain ahead in the Real Clear Politics average for the first time since late March.

Oh Canada

Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper has called a general election to be held on October 14.

Polling suggests that the result will be little different from now.

Even

Rasmussen's latest poll isn't happy reading for the Democrats (and the BBC).

After all the media hype about Obama, all the attacks on Palin, and a hurricane everything is now level.

Apart that is that more Republicans back McCain than Democrats back Obama (89% to 81%), McCain is supported by 15% of Democrats as opposed to 9% of GOP voters going for Obama, McCain is viewed favorably by 58% with Obama on 56%, Palin is viewed favorably by 58% compared with Biden's 48% of voters.

Convinced?

Justin Webb, the BBC's North American editor, describes those writing for Democratic blog the Huffington Post were unconvinced by John McCain.

The Huffington Post is a Democrat supporting, Republican hating blog so to describe it as 'unconvinced' is misleading.

The rest of his article tries to be as negative as possible about McCain's speech.

Gordon Brown as PM is 'unconstitutional'

Justice Secretary Jack Straw claims that replacing Gordon Brown as Labour leader without a general election would be 'unconstitutional'. If that is true then it must have been equally 'unconstitutional' for Brown to have replaced Blair without an election.

The Bishop of Stafford is an idiot

According to Very Rev Gordon Mursell, the Bishop of Stafford those who are sceptical about the Global Warming theory share a 'common philosophy of life' with Austrian pervert Josef Fritzl.

Considering the proportionally high number of priests who indulge in molesting children perhaps that 'common philosophy' is nearer to home.

Labour Going Bust?

The Guardian reports that 'Senior officials in the Labour party, including Gordon Brown, could become personally liable for millions of pounds in debt unless new donors can be found within weeks'.

Labour has five weeks to find £7.45m, and has to find another £6.2m will have to be repaid by Christmas.

Time to call a snap by election in Henley?

Silencing the Opposition

The Telegraph reports that 'Plans to eliminate Eurosceptics as an organised opposition within the European Parliament are expected to be agreed by a majority of MEPs this summer'.

The plans, that are unsurprisingly being proposed by a Labour MEP Richard Corbett, involved disbanding the major Euro sceptic group in the European Parliament and 'also give the President of the Parliament sweeping powers to approve or reject parliamentary questions'.

So much for democracy.

Pretending to Do Something

The BBC reports that 'Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling are set to meet oil industry leaders amid controversy over soaring fuel prices'.

As the protesters want a 'rethink planned fuel and road tax increases' which only the Government can deliver it is hard to see this as anything but a crude bit of Pr.

Election

Brown should call an early election because things aren’t going to get better for them so they might as well call an election before they get worse.

Cheap Talk

Looking at Johann Hari's latest bit of advice to Gordon Brown this is how to write a political op-ed piece for the Independent:

1) Claim the polls are volatile, and that things can change.
2a) Call Cameron right wing and a PR man, but not a toff as that wasn’t a winner in Crewe.
2b) Why not call everyone you don’t like ‘hard-right’.
3) Blame the press for not reporting 2.
4) Mention Iraq.
5) Then give some really silly advice.
6) Be amazed that you get paid for writing this sort of thing.
7) Wonder why the Labour Party is in the mess it's in. Probably not following your advice, the right wingers.

Let's hope that Gordon follow's Hari's advice.

On Too Long

Today Brown is like some old comedy performer, repeating the same old material, ignoring the bad reviews, and hoping that the theatre owner was joking when he said he wouldn't renew the contract in two years time.

Sadly this performer wants to take the theatre down with him.

In Scotland

Could the reason why Gordon is going to be hiding up in Scotland around the time of the Crewe and Nantwich by election be so that those coming to suggest he goes don't have to walk down Downing Street to do it?

Milburn to Challenge Brown?

Rumours abound that the former Health Secretary Alan Milburn will mount a leadership bid if things are bad for Labour in the Crewe and Nantwich by election.

But wouldn’t asking Gordon Brown to leave quietly for the good of the party be better than an out right challenge?

Tories 13 points ahead in Crewe and Nantwich

The Dependent has a ComRes poll in tomorrow's paper showing 'the Tories a huge THIRTEEN points ahead, the highest lead so far'. That is roughly a 30% swing to the Tories since the 2005 Election.

Past the Tipping Point

It is evident that a pattern is developing in the polls with 'The Tories are well above 40% and Labour is in the mid to high 20s'. Unless something odd happens (which is possible) it looks like the best Labour can hope for at the next general election is a Tory majority of less than 60.

A new Labour leader might have enough of a honeymoon to move things from a large Tory majority (and probably two terms of them at least) to a smaller one and make the next election up for grabs if they went for a snap election.

Opposites

BBC presenter Jenny Scott attacked Tory by election organiser Eric Pickles saying the Labour Party was accusing him of running a negative campaign in Crewe and Nantwich on today's Daily Politics.

Odd then that even the Daily Mirror thinks the opposite is the case.

No Never Met Him

Labour candidate in Crewe and Nantwich, Moyra Tamsin Dunwoody-Kneafsy, claims that she has never met Gordon Brown only spoken to him on the telephone. It is strange then that there is a photograph of her standing next to Brown.

Is Gordon Brown so toxic that Tamsin Dunwoody has to lie about having met him?

Tories 20% Ahead

After spending billions (of our money) to bribe people just before a by election Gordon Brown finds himself 20 points behind the Tories in the latest YouGov poll (C 45%(-4), L 25% (+2), and LD 18% (+1) (changes since last Sunday)).

But it's worse for Brown personally because 'only 17% think he is doing a good job while 78% say he is doing badly' and 'by three to one, 69% to 21%, they say he is not up to the job of being prime minister'.

I wonder if this will be good enough for the 'Tories should be...' lot?

Fool's Fool

Any pretence that Mariella Frostrup isn't partisan (or has any judgment) is destroyed by quotes like: 'People have forgotten that Gordon is the most genuine, decent, caring Prime Minister we will probably have in my lifetime'.

Tories Possibly 8 Points Ahead in Crewe and Nantwich

Iain Dale reports that a poll has the Tories with an eight point lead in Crewe and Nantwich (C 45%, L 37%, and LD 14%). If correct that is a 13% swing to the Tories since the 2005 General Election.

Labour in a Poll

The latest YouGov poll has the Tories on 49% up 5 points, Labour on 23%(-3), and the Lib Dems on a static 17%, the lowest Labour poll number since records began.

Although this poll is probably effected by its timing, just after Tory election victories, it will still be reported as disastrous news for Labour and Brown.

Hole Digging

After getting themselves in a hole with their truly dreadful Local Election coverage the BBC has decided to keep digging.

Their Political Editor (well one of them) Nick Robinson writes a wonderfully sycophantic blog entry about Gordon Brown's appearance on breakfast TV and when people criticise it their comments are deleted sorry moderated.

And on this week's This Week managed to feature two Labour supporters but not one Lib Dem or Tory.

As it looks like the Tories may win the next election is it really a good idea for the BBC to be so biased against them?

Needing an Editor

Independent columnist Johann Hari writes that 'Boris will forever be the mayor of Zones Four to Six, the chief executive of Watford and Bromley and Amersham'.

Neither Watford or Amersham are in London, and Watford has a Labour MP.

(cheers Sean Fear)

In The Quality Left Wing Press

Independent columnist Steve Richards writes 'Currently a fatal narrative is in place. It can be summarised in three words: 'Brown is a disaster''.

His colleague Bruce Anderson writes a long attack piece against Boris Johnson 'a man without core belief: without a political or intellectual compass'. Anderson was sacked as political editor of The Spectator by Boris Johnson.

Hostage to Fortune

Labour and their friends in the media are trying to spin the Crewe and Nantwich by election, that was called following the death (but not burial) of Gwyneth Dunwoody, into both an easy and a must win for the Tories.

The Tories must counter that impression.

A Tory win in Crewe and Nantwich is still a longshot and if the Tories let the media portray it as anything other than that they are just creating a hostage to fortune.

Bogeyman

PR Week has been told by a source that Gordon Brown is '­obsessed' with Conservative Party communications director Andy Coulson who he blames for turning the press against he. What Brown fails to realise is it's his actions that are doing that.

As long as he's 'obsessed' with Coulson and not looking at why he's tanking things will keep looking good for the Tories.

There's more about it on ConservativeHome.

Internal Passports

Giving evidence to the House of Commons Home Affairs Committee Meg Hillier the minister in charge of ID Cards said:

'You should see an ID card like a passport in-country'

Useless or Biased?

At the end of last night's show Newsnight political editor Michael Crick suggested that the poll gap between the Tories and Labour had narrowed since the budget.

As the opposite is true was Crick showing an anti Tory bias or ignorance?

Not Mentioning

The BBC (in between some unrelated by biased stuff about the death of a Reuters cameraman) report that 'Former US President Jimmy Carter has said that Hamas is prepared to accept the right of Israel to "live as a neighbour next door in peace"'.

The BBC managed to mention nothing about Hamas being a terrorist group, how they murdered their way to power in Gaza, or how they are attacking Israel on a daily basis.

Context anyone?

Boris Up (by being down)

The latest polling for the London Mayoral election in today's Evening Standard has Boris leading Ken Livingstone by 7 points on the first preference vote a 1% increase from the last poll. His lead on second preferences falls one point from to 6%.

The full figures are for the first preference: Boris 44% (Down 1) , Livingstone 37% (Down 2) , Paddick 12% (Up 2) , Sian Berry (Green Party) 2% (Unchanged) and Others 3%.

The rise in Paddick's support is odd considering how badly he came across in both the Newsnight and Politics Show hustings.